Monday, October 19, 2015

A Statistical Argument for Not Being Nervous on First Dates


A few months ago I became single for the first time in four years. I went from studying online dating to being a datapoint myself [1]. This has made me think more urgently about questions I once considered only abstractly. Today I write about the connection between testing statistical hypotheses and testing romantic attraction.


Statisticians love to develop multiple ways of testing the same thing. If I want to decide whether two groups of people have significantly different IQs, I can run a t-test or a rank sum test or a bootstrap or a regression. You can argue about which of these is most appropriate, but I basically think that if the effect is really statistically significant and large enough to matter, it should emerge regardless of which test you use, as long as the test is reasonable and your sample isn’t tiny. An effect that appears when you use a parametric test but not a nonparametric test is probably not worth writing home about [2].


A similar lesson applies, I think, to first dates. When you’re attracted to someone, you overanalyze everything you say, spend extra time trying to look attractive, etc. But if your mutual attraction is really statistically significant and large enough to matter, it should emerge regardless of the exact circumstances of a single evening. If the shirt you wear can fundamentally alter whether someone is attracted to you, you probably shouldn’t be life partners.


You can argue against this by pointing out cases where a tiny detail does matter because it prevents you from having any future interactions: for example, you foolishly wear your XL Chess Team sweatshirt to the bar and your would be Lothario never bothers to approach you and thereby discover that you look much better with it off.


This is a risk. In statistical terms, a glance at across a bar doesn’t give you a lot of data and increases the probability you’ll make an incorrect decision. As a statistician, I prefer not to work with small datasets, and similarly, I’ve never liked romantic environments that give me very little data about a person. (Don’t get me started on Tinder. The only thing I can think when I see some stranger staring at me out of a phone is, “My errorbars are huge!” which makes it very hard to assess attraction.)

Even on a longer date, there’s some risk that a disaster at the beginning will ruin your subsequent interactions. If you start by asking “how’s your relationship with your mother?”, you’ve torpedoed your chance to have a truly intimate conversation about how she ran off to train monkeys.


Still, I’m sticking to the principle that if your romance-to-be is statistically robust, whether you wear makeup or the moon is full should make no more difference than whether you compute the Spearman or Pearson correlation. (And if your date asks you if you want to bootstrap, the answer is always, of course, yes.)


I think there’s even an argument for being deliberately unattractive to your date, on the grounds that if they still like you, they must really like you. Imagine a cliched rom-com disaster [3]: you vomit on your date. This isn’t sexy. On the other hand, someone who finds you attractive after that is much more likely to still find you attractive when you’re puking during pregnancy or chemotherapy [4]. This is somewhat analogous to using a statistical test that makes very weak assumptions (here's one example): if the test yields positive results, you can have high confidence they're real.


Please don’t send me angry emails when you take this post too seriously and the love of your life spurns you because you didn’t shower for a week before your date. But I’d welcome your thoughts in the comments or via email. (Also hit me up if you have ideas for statistical projects that I can only conduct while single.)


Notes:
[1] I recently received an email from a Stanford professor in a similar situation: his marriage broke up after 20 years, and he responded by writing a book about the connections between economics and dating.
[2] An economics friend points out a corollary to this principle: be suspicious of analyses that use really convoluted tests when it seems like simple ones should do, because that might indicate that the simple ones didn’t produce the results they’re reporting.
[3] 10 Things I Hate About You, 50 Shades of Grey, Mean Girls. What’s with this trope, and why are the pukers always female?
[4] You’re calling me crazy and I’m kind of kidding, but I’d also argue that the idea of testing one’s partner is a socially accepted one. (My scholarly attempt to do a lit review on this question -- I Googled “make them work for it” -- yielded this text. You’re welcome.) There are many bad reasons people are told to defer sleeping with someone, but a not-so-bad-one, from a probabilistic standpoint, is that someone who will wait might be more likely to really like you.



59 comments:

  1. My philosophy in my 20s was similar to Bertrand Russell's advice on happiness which is to be open to as many pleasures (people) as possible. (1) Not exactly knowing what kind of guy I wanted to be with, I covered all my bases. I exercised to have a nice body and good posture, drank lots of water and ate well for a nice complexion, varied my interests from literature to science to athletics to travel, increased my social skills, made sure I was employable and saved a lot of money. I won the lottery finding my spouse so it is hard to separate my luck from the implementation of my philosophy. In my 20s I met a lot of interesting people but also gained a lot of great habits that make my life healthy, interesting, and with low-stress in my 30s. Finding the ideal life partner is so impactful on the quality of ones life, I really recommend doing everything one can to increase the probability of finding a good mate. Dating a lot (and hearing about the dating experiences of your friends) will give one enough intuition so that one can shower as much as they want!

    (1) "Suppose one man likes strawberries and another does not; in what respect is the latter superior? There is no abstract and impersonal proof either that strawberries are good or that they are not good. To the man who likes them they are good, to the man who dislikes them they are not. But the man who likes them has a pleasure which the other does not have; to that extent his life is more enjoyable and he is better adapted to the world in which both must live."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Great quote, and great advice (probably considerably more sensible than anything in my original post).

      Delete
  2. Very nice ! I won't advice puking or farting on any first dates .😂😂😂. I must add to be ones self on a first date.. I would rather we don't get along or don't earlier .. Than to pretend and break up weeks later

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Agreed. I think that "be oneself" is probably better advice than "deliberately be unattractive". It's one thing to dress as you normally would. It's another thing to deliberately dress sloppily.

      Delete
  3. Who pukes is statistically insignificant to the importance of how a date reacts: was on a first date at a restaurant I frequented, holding the restaurant owner's small daughter on my lap, when without warning said daughter puked all over my pants. Fortunately - weirdly - I happened to have a change of clothes in the car. My date was super impressed that I didn't get mad at the little girl and generally handled the situation with aplomb. However, I'd also note that there is a fine like between dating as you are and dating like you don't care how things work out. Perhaps it is the unspoken definition of how to manage that line that the more come-as-you-are approach has in its favor.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hahaha, that's great. And I agree that dating "like you don't care how things work out" runs the risk of signaling a lack of interest -- see my response to the commenter below.

      Delete
  4. Dear Emma,

    It's all about power.

    A first date is a *mutual* test. Your excellent tests lower the probability of your committing a type-II error (H0: The guy is a douchebag), but you don't know his statistical skills.

    Suppose you go on a first date with a high-quality Muggle. You're into him. But unlike high-power statisticians like youself, Muggles' type-II errors are huge. Your frumpy t-shirt might produce a low t-stat, and thus dissuade him from going on a second date, despite being attracted to you if only he could see through, ahem, your bad t-shirt. His low-power testing strategy is getting in the way of a happy relationship.

    Maybe that's the whole point. Maybe you would never date a person with a poor filter. But unless you have Leontief preferences, I bet you'd be willing to date a guy with poor statistical skills, but who is excellent in many other ways.

    And this, I think, is one reason why we conform to certain norms, whether on a first date or a job interview: Because *they* might use a *low-power* test.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm sorry, you lost me at "I'd bet you'd be willing to date a guy with poor statistical skills".

      Delete
    2. More seriously, your point is well-taken. It's also not even clear that a person who infers from a frumpy t-shirt that you're not worth dating is making a poor statistical decision. Your decision to wear that t-shirt may indicate a lack of interest in him. As the commenter above points out, "dating like you don't care how things work out" may send the wrong signal even to people who you might be interested in.

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  5. The strength of one's relationships with all the nodes of the ego net is often claimed to be hierarchical in nature, and certainly obeys a radical inequality (fat tail). Dunbar claims that his hierarchical model of relation (where theory-of-mind can hold for 150 people, going down to a group of ~25 friends and 5 friends who you can really confide in, from the linear regression on brain volume) is modified so that one significant other replaces 2 friends for confiding in.

    I think Lekovec goes over this in cs224w? I never paid attention in that class very much.

    Anyhow, fat tails on a distribution are a possible hint of strange dynamical shenanigans that can go on (a hint, mind you: many claimed power law processes might just be, say, an exponential process with uneven sampling or lognormal or whatever, which might have perfectly normal explanations and things), which bring the importance of contingency into them, because lots of spectra of interest from signals of interest from chaotic (not speaking of chaos in a mushy way here: I mean SDIC, Lyapunov exponent >0, etc etc) systems are power law spectra. Sufficient but not necessary. Moreover, it hints of worlds where central limit theorems and suchlike get drowned in correlational structure.

    You can tell a lot of the same stories in the info theory of dynamical systems as many people tell in love: this was what drew the Losada group et al. into thinking about it. They were really not good enough at math to do anything with it, but it's interesting to think about.

    Also of interest are the paradox of enrichment and the paradox of the pesticides, which are both statements on the _reactive_ nature of ecological systems, and compare them to what R. Cialdini the influence man calls the "romeo and juliet effect", where parental pressure to avoid a relationship in a teenage couple induces a stronger relationship.

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  6. This article is great, thanks! I really enjoyed it :)

    ReplyDelete
  7. You can't smell a potential partner on your phone. Meet first. Then, because you inhaled, you'll be able to be attracted. The pic only lets you intellectualize yourself into a non-evolutionary situation.

    Love at first sight was always love at first smell.

    ReplyDelete
  8. I'm not a stats type of guy but I do enjoy the discussions they often spawn and this is an interesting one for me. I'm a counselor/therapist and have always been interested in dating statistics. The only one I've use is a simple one...the more you date the closer you get to finding the right one. The less you date the further from finding the right one.

    ReplyDelete
  9. I'm not a stats type of guy but I do enjoy the discussions they often spawn and this is an interesting one for me. I'm a counselor/therapist and have always been interested in dating statistics. The only one I've use is a simple one...the more you date the closer you get to finding the right one. The less you date the further from finding the right one.

    ReplyDelete
  10. It’s no secret that most men only want one thing, right?

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  33. Go to Amazon.com/mytv and create your Amazon account, if you already have an account then sign in to your account. Now enter the activation or verification code in the next screen that is in front of you. You are now ready to enjoy a lot of amazing and great movies and shows on your smart TV.Amazon.com/mytv is a registration portal of Amazon Prime from which members can watch thousands of movies and TV shows for free from their device some features require a premium subscription. The instant video service can only be watched after registering your device with a simple subscription code.Amazon.com/mytv is considered one of the most reliable web portals for the activation of Prime Video on your Smart TV. After successful registration, choose a TV cable provider’s network, sign in to your account, and start watching excellent Amazon Prime content on your Smart TV device.

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  34. Amazon.com/mytv.com- Simply head on over to Amazon.com/mytv enter code or Amazon.com/mytv and follow the on-screen instructions. Create an account on Amazon Prime Video from your TV official website and enjoy watching your favorite shows and great movies. Importnat Points to remember about amazon.com/mytv Amazon Fire TV Stick and Fire TV cube can also enjoy Amazon prime video with their family and loved ones. Today in this article we will discuss which devices you can watch amazon.com/mytv Amazon prime video and how you can activate it on the particular device.

    Amazon Prime Video is the official app for this popular service from Amazon that lets you stream dozens of movies and TV shows completely legally. To be clear, amazon.com/mytv Amazon Prime works quite similarly to Netflix and HBO GO.The Amazon My TV Code program requires the customer to have an Amazon account and a streaming device or TV. Amazon Prime Video is available on almost all streaming devices like Roku, Amazon Fire TV, Chromecast. amazon.com/mytv For this you just have to go to Amazon and activate amazon with the help of amazon activation code. You can visit our website amazon.com/mytv for details of the entire process.

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  35. Amazon Prime Video is one of the best platforms to watch movies and TV shows continuously on the internet. amazon.com/mytv You can now watch your favorite shows not only on your laptop or computer but also on your Smart TV and streaming sticks. It is also available on a few selected set-top boxes at a cheaper cost.amazon.com/mytv is the most ideal website to activate the Amazon Prime Video subscription on users’ Smart TVs. Once the registration is done successfully, people can select their TV cable service provider, amazon.com/mytv log in to their user account and enjoy their favorite Amazon Prime videos on the devices.

    Switch on your Smart TV. Now, on the homepage, go to your Amazon Prime App, or, if you don’t have it then download it from your app store or play store. amazon.com/mytv Now, open the app and go to the sign-in option. You will receive an amazon code, visit amazon.com/mytv and enter amazon activation code on your smartphone or laptop.Search your Smart TV’s app store or the Amazon Prime app. Download and add it to the channel. amazon.com/mytv Open the app and click on amazon my tv the ‘Register on the Amazon website’ link.

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  36. Amazon is a video streaming service available for Amazon Prime members. amazon.com/mytv With an eligible Amazon Prime membership, you have access to thousands of Prime Video titles at no additional cost.One of the most popular platform for video streaming now a days is amazon prime video competiting directly with Netflix and many others. amazon.com/mytv While there is no doubt that prime video is increasing its daily subscribers day by day, amazon.com/mytv We have also noticed people facing issues activiating their primevideo services using primevideo mytv.

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  37. Enter the link Amazon mytv enter code on your browser. Input your login details to log in to your Amazon Prime video account. A new screen will open which will ask for the “ Amazon Prime Verification Code . Amazon.com/mytventercode Amazon Prime is a subscription service that caters to the media needs of people through the platform. Notifies visitors about topics such as Register TV, Amazon Prime TV, and MyTV code. To register your device on the Amazon website you go to our website and enter the given code. The program requires the customer to have an Amazon account and a streaming device or TV. amazon mytv Amazon Prime Video is available on almost all streaming devices like Roku, Amazon Fire TV, Chromecast. For this, you just have to go to Amazon with the help of the amazon activation code. You can visit our website for details of the entire process. You can do this by installing the Video application on your smart TV, or the digital media player or video game console connected to your TV by visiting the link provided by us in the de cription.

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  38. Start now and set up Amazon Prime Video on your devices. Register your Smart TV, streaming media player, or any other device to watch now thousands of movies and videos in HD quality. amazon mytv activate Amazon Mytv Enter Code For Tv Registration now offers you several coupons to save money. amazon mytv enter code for tv If you want to take full advantage of your Amazon Prime account please link it to your TV and thank us later. Simply head on over to amazon mytv activate visit here.

    Amazon Prime Video administration on your Smart TV or gushing gadget ought to be effective. This gives you boundless access to huge amounts of films and TV appears, both for yourself and your friends and family. the actuation procedure is so basic and clear that everybody can enact Amazon Prime Video on amazon.com/mytv and amazon.com/mytv is the best site to initiate the Amazon Prime Video membership on clients' Smart TVs. When the enrollment is done effectively, individuals can choose their TV link specialist organization, sign in to their client account and make the most amazon.com/mytv of their preferred Amazon Prime recordings on the gadgets.

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  39. Amazon prime video is accessible on practically all spilling gadgets like Roku, Amazon Fire TV, Chromecast, and some more. You need to just actuate your amazon prime video by visiting Amazon.com/mytv and Amazon Prime is a membership administration furnished by the amazon with boundless amusement with loads of different advantages. No one at any point envisioned a membership administration with Amazon.com/mytv these advantages.Amazon Prime through Amazon.com/mytv is available to proprietors of gushing stages and gadgets like Chromecast, Fire TV, Amazon TV, and Roku, among others.

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  40. Open the Amazon app on your TV. Amazon.com/mytv Sign in with your newly created Amazon Prime account. Amazon.com/mytv There will be a 6 letter code on your TV screen. Enter the code shown on the TV screen in the activation window on your PC.Amazon.com/mytv visit the amazon mytv website Amazon.com/mytv and enter the 6 digit code displayed on your tv, sign in to amazon prime account to register device.

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  41. To download Norton Security Online, you will need your Xfinity User ID and password. xfinity norton download Simply download Norton Security Online and enter your Xfinity User ID and password when asked. xfinity norton You will then also be prompted to create a Norton Account. Please enter in your information when prompted during Norton Security Online’s installation.Xfinity locates offline financial deals for authorized Internet, video and mobile services. You can activate Xfinity Authorized by visiting the website xfinity norton And with xfinity you can get the service you need offline. You can visit our website xfinity.com/authorize for more information.

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  42. Get the most out of Xfinity from Comcast by signing in to your account. xfinity norton download Enjoy and manage TV, high-speed Internet, phone, and home security services that work seamlessly together — anytime, anywhere, on any device.Xfinity is the brand name of Computer Definition Comcast for its cable TV, Internet and telephony services. xfinity norton download is a trade name of Comcast Cable Communications, LLC, a subsidiary of the Comcast Corporation, used to market consumer cable television, internet, telephone, and wireless services provided by the company. xfinity.com/authorize Using the Xfinity My Account app and credit card or your bank account information, you can pay your bills and customize your WiFi network name and password, troubleshoot and personalize your devices.

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  43. Once you establish a temporary Internet connection and if the welcome message does not appear automatically to begin setup, activate your Xfinity account. To activate, open the web browser and go to xfinity.com/authorize and get information.Anytime it is easier to manage your services online with XFINITY My Account. xfinity.com/authorize With XFINITY My Account you can spend more time so that you can enjoy your entertainment.To activate an Xfinity Gateway go to its official website that is xfinity authorize and Explore best deals online for Internet, Video and Mobile services. xfinity.com/authorize Enjoy entertainment, stay connected, and get the service you need online.

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  44. Xfinity Authorize and xfinity.com/authorize is an official website that help users to activate Xfinity Gateway. User can get the best plans online for the Internet, video and mobile services too. xfinity.com/authorize Get the package of entertainment by connecting with it and also get any services online whatever you need.Learn how to activate the Xfinity Stream Beta app on Roku. xfinity.com/authorize Activate xfinity from xfinity authorize website using activation code and if you face any issues, contact support team.

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  45. Enter your xfinity code and manage TV, high-speed internet, phone and home security services. Xfinity is the name given to most of Comcast's consumer services. xfinity.com/authorize
    Comcast launched its Comcast services as Xfinity in 2010. Xfinity authorized on your computer and you can visit our website for more information. xfinity.com/authorize Install Xfinity Stream on your Roku streaming device. Download Xfinity Stream on Roku and activate xfinity stream on roku. And stream all your 200+ channels. xfinity.com/authorize To learn how to activate xfinity on Roku TV setup , visit our website.

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  46. Amazon Prime through primevideo.com/mytv is accessible to owners of streaming platforms and devices like Chromecast, Fire TV, Amazon TV, and Roku, among others. Amazon Prime Video service on your Smart TV or streaming device should be successful. primevideo.com/mytv This gives you unlimited access to tons of movies and TV shows, both for yourself and your loved ones. the activation process is so simple and straightforward that everyone can activate Amazon Prime Video on primevideo.com/mytv amazon my tv.

    If you eagerly wanted to know what is amazon prime video then the answer is amazing. It is more than a fast delivery option. Amazon Prime is a subscription service provided by the primevideo.com/mytv with unlimited entertainment with lots of other benefits.Here is a detailed guide on primevideo.com/mytv registration, how you can get the activation code to activate Prime video on your smart TVs. primevideo.com/mytv Using a computer, go to primevideo.com/mytv Sign-in with an active e-mail address and password or click Create your Amazon account.

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  47. Here is a detailed guide on primevideo.com/mytv registration, how you can get the activation code to activate Prime video on your smart TVs.Using a computer, go to primevideo.com/mytv Sign-in with an active e-mail address and password or primevideo.com/mytv click Create your Amazon account.

    Amazon Prime TV, and MyTV code. To register your device on the Amazon website you go to our website and enter the given code. primevideo.com/mytv The program requires the customer to have an Amazon account and a streaming device or TV. Amazon Prime Video is available on almost all streaming devices like Roku, Amazon Fire TV, Chromecast. primevideo.com/mytv For this, you just have to go to Amazon with the help of the amazon activation code. You can visit our website for details of the entire process. You can do this by installing the primevideo.com/mytv Video application on your smart TV, or the digital media player or video game console connected to your TV by visiting the link provided by us in the de cription.

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  48. On your mobile device or computer, go to primevideo.com/mytv Sign in to your Amazon account. primevideo.com/mytv Enter the code shown on your TV in to the Amazon website. Prime Video gives you two ways to instantly stream Videos on your Android TV device. primevideo.com/mytv Buy or rent your favorite titles or join Amazon Prime and get unlimited access to award-winning Prime Originals as well primevideo.com/mytv as thousands of movies and TV shows at no additional cost.

    Amazon Prime Returns & Replacements Manage Your Content and Devices Amazon Assistant Help English United States. primevideo.com/mytv Amazon Music Stream millions of songs: Amazon Advertising Find, attract, and engage customers: primevideo.com/mytv Amazon Drive Cloud storage from Amazon: 6pm Score deals on fashion brands: AbeBooks Books, art & collectibles: primevideo.com/mytv ACX Audiobook Publishing Made Easy: Alexa Actionable Analytics.

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